(Hamilton) – As in-person voting begins on Tuesday, the Butler County Democratic Party’s review of absentee ballot by mail requests shows it entering the final month of the campaign with a narrow, yet historic lead in requests in the county so far. The Democratic advantage is even more impressive when requests through the end of September are compared to all absentee ballot by mail requests received in the last three prior presidential campaigns. The data demonstrates that Butler County is not immune to Democratic dominance in early voting in Ohio so far.
The party’s review of absentee requests through the end of September and the data from the past three presidential campaigns found:
- The number of requests by registered Democrats has already tripled from those requested in all of 2016, thus erasing what had been an over 3:1 Republican advantage in 2012 and 2016 in the county.
- The number of requests from registered Democrats with a month to go is over 2,000 higher than the Democratic requests in 2008 and less than 500 requests fewer than the registered Republican requests in all of the 2016 general election.
- In terms of the share of the early vote, the Democratic requests are nearly double the share of the vote they were in 2016 and substantially closer to the turnout in 2008 than 2012 or 2016.
- The Democratic edge existed even though the number of requests by Republicans is only 1,000 ballots down from the number requested by Republican in all of 2016 with a month to go.
“By several measures, the turnout in Ohio so far looks to be 2008 on steroids. We’ve seen the Republican voter registration advantage in this county be cut by slightly over half in the past four years. Now, we have erased their advantage in vote by mail in presidential elections. Joe Biden and Kamala Harris either lead or are tied in the polling in Ohio. With a month to go, we will continue to push our voters to ensure they get their ballots in as quickly and safely as possible for what potentially can be a historic showing for the Democratic Party here,” said Brian Hester, Butler County Democratic Party Executive Committee Chair.
Source: Butler County Board of Elections Data for Absentee Ballot by Mail Requests for General Elections in 2008, 2012, 2016, and 2020. Does not include UOCAVA, nursing home or other absentee requests. 2020 data is through the end of September. All other data is for the entire general election.